Last week, I previewed the AL playoff matchups and gave my opinions on who would win each division series and the AL pennant.
This week, the National League remains to be examined.
As I’m writing this article, the NL matchups are very much in doubt. If you thought the race in the AL Central division was close between the Tigers and Twins, just take a look at the NL West.
In this division, the LA Dodgers hold a small lead of 2.5 games over the surging Colorado Rockies.
The NL divisional round matchups themselves are not final at this point, because no team in the league has clinched the best record on the season. The Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have 92, 91, 93, and 90 wins, respectively.
Talk about coming down to the wire! So, not only will I be predicting winners, I’ll also be predicting the playoff matchups themselves.
Phillies vs. Rockies
Due to the fact that the Phillies’ last series is against the slumping Marlins, I predict that they will either sweep the Fish or win 2 out of 3 games. I believe these wins will be enough to clinch the NL’s best record and home field advantage throughout the playoffs for the Phils. Their opponent in the first round of the playoffs will most likely be the wild card-winning Rockies.
Who will prevail?
The defending world-champion Phillies look quite strong again this year, but the Rockies have been spoiler underdogs in the past (specifically, two years ago, when they made an improbable run to the World Series).
The Phillies have a lineup led by Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. These players are dangerous because they are all good at exploiting pitchers’ mistakes, and this makes them viable power hitters.
The batting averages, however, have been slightly depressed for the Phillies’ hitters this year; as a team, they are hitting .258, which is the worst team batting average for any team in the postseason this year.
The Phillies’ pitching, however, is a different story. With the additions of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez near the trade deadline, the Phillies have a strong rotation anchored by Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and surprise sensation J.A. Happ.
Happ leads all Phillies pitchers with a 2.85 ERA and is in a three-way tie with Blanton and Jamie Moyer to lead the team with 12 wins.
This pitching staff will be hard to beat.
The Rockies are a surprise success story this year, and they are looking to repeat the type of playoff run that got them to the World Series in 2007. With higher averages than the Phillies’ top hitters, Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki lead the Rockies’ lineup. Since joining the Rockies, Jason Giambi has also proven his worth at the plate; he is hitting .350 since his arrival in Colorado.
The Rockies have slightly weaker starting pitching than the Phillies, and this is mainly because no one in the starting rotation has an ERA less than 3.50; however, wins have not been a problem for the pitching staff, as Jorge De La Rosa has 16, Jason Marquis has 15 and Ubaldo Jimenez has 14.
Huston Street is the Rockies’ closer, and he has had a fairly successful season with 34 saves and an ERA of 3.13. If the Rockies’ hitters can get their starting pitchers some run support, they should find the same type of success as the 2007 team.
This series, should it occur, would be quite evenly-matched simply because the teams each have their own particular strengths and weaknesses.
As hard as it is for me to pick against a team with a feel-good story like the Rockies, I’m taking the Phillies in this one because I believe their superior pitching will effectively stifle Colorado’s bats. Prediction: Phillies in 5.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
This series will feature two teams with explosive offenses. The Cardinals dominated the competition in the NL Central division, while the Dodgers will be lucky if they finish the season in first place.
When I think of the St. Louis Cardinals, I think of Albert Pujols hitting monstrous home runs all day long. He is a perennial All Star, and he’s without a doubt the leader of this Cardinals team. He has a .330 batting average, 47 home runs and 134 runs batted in. Those stats are a clear indicator that Pujols is in the running for another NL MVP award this year. Of course, one player does not make a team, but Pujols is not the only Cardinals hitter with a batting average above .300.
Matt Holliday and Skip Schumaker are hitting .350 and .303, respectively, and catcher Yadier Molina is batting a decent .291 on the season. The Cardinals certainly have the hitting capacity of a championship-caliber team, but do they have the pitching?
Of course they do!
Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are both NL Cy Young award candidates, and why shouldn’t they be?
With ERAs below 2.60 and 35 wins between the two of them, it’s clear that hitters have had nightmares about facing them at the plate.
What about the Dodgers? This team started off with the best record in the entire MLB for months, but they have been stumbling somewhat since August. They now find themselves possibly facing a very tough challenge in St. Louis. Can they handle the Cardinals like they did the Cubs last fall?
I doubt it.
Even if Manny Ramirez’s hitting picks up, this team has struggled against the Cardinals this year (the Cardinals won 5 of 7 games against LA this season). Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson will also need to continue their productive years offensively if this team wants to win.
Dodger pitchers Randy Wolf, Hiroki Kuroda and Clayton Kershaw all have ERAs below 4.00 (Kershaw leads the team at 2.89), but they haven’t proven that they can win consistently against the Cardinals this season. The Dodgers had a good team for much of this year, but I don’t see them beating a well-rounded, superior Cardinals team. Prediction: Cardinals in 4.
NLCS: Cardinals vs. Phillies
This matchup would hinge on the success of each team’s pitching. Hamels and Lee against Carpenter and Wainwright; Phillies closer Brad Lidge against Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin; it doesn’t get much better than that. If the Phillies can’t break out of their slightly below-average production on offense, however, I don’t see how they can win against St. Louis. Albert and the Cards look hungry for another trip to the World Series, and if they keep the heat turned up on offense, they have a good shot at getting there.
I think it’s clear that St. Louis has what it takes to make it to the World Series for the third time in this decade. Prediction: Cardinals in 5.
My AL and NL picks have led to a 2009 World Series matchup prediction: the Boston Red Sox against the St. Louis Cardinals. That sounds somewhat familiar…I recall a similar matchup occurring five years ago.
If I remember correctly, it ended with something like the Red Sox breaking an 86-year championship drought, right?
Of course, this Cardinal team will put up more of a fight than the team of 2004, but I’m reluctant to pick against my hometown team. And so, to avoid displaying further bias, I present a solution: Let’s see how my picks pan out until the World Series. At that time, I will return (either triumphantly or with my head bowed in shame) to give a World Series preview that you won’t want to miss. Enjoy the 2009 MLB playoffs, Conn!
