The 2011 MLB season has begun. Photo from Web.
1. Will the AL East division be a close race this year?
Disclaimer: I am disregarding the Red Sox’s pitiful 1-7 start. Now, I haven’t been so ecstatic about a Sox team since the Idiots of ’04. This team reminds me of those produced by fantasy drafts, where every team is loaded up with three or four incredible hitters and extreme depth at pitching. The Red Sox boast a lineup that features second through sixth hitters who all possess multiple All-Star appearances (Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Papi). Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz will both be vying for a Cy Young award, and when John Lackey and Dice-K are your four and five starters, I’d say the team is in pretty good shape.
However, one cannot dismiss the fact that the Sox play in the AL East—clearly the elite division of Major League Baseball. The Yankees will compete as usual, but the glaring problem is their age (Jeter is 36 years old, A-rod is 35 and Posada is 39), not to mention their signing of the declining Andruw Jones. Closer Mariano Rivera, on the other hand, is showing no signs of stopping after his first close of the season, where he threw twelve pitches en route to a 1-2-3 ninth. The Tampa Bay Rays enter the season again as the third favorite to win the division, but this is where they are the most dangerous. Furthermore, if B.J. Upton can return to form and David Price can lead the pitching staff to success, the Rays will likely make a run to the top of the division.
2. Can Joe Mauer and the Twins hold back the Tigers and White Sox?
The Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central (just kidding). But like the AL East, the Central division includes three teams with the talent to win the division. The popular favorite is the Minnesota Twins, led by former MVP Joe Mauer. The key for the Twins will be consistent starting pitching from Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano, and monitoring the health of All-Star closer Joe Nathan, who missed the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Having Matt Capps in the bullpen will take the pressure off Nathan to rush back to form, and first baseman Justin Morneau is also returning from an injury.
At the heels of the Twins will be the Detroit Tigers, relying on the big bat of Miguel Cabrera, who has a real shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 (.328, 38 HR, 126 RBIs in 2010), but only if he stays clean and keeps himself out of trouble. The Chicago White Sox could also get hot at any point during the season. This will only happen, however, if Jake Peavy can contribute to a solid pitching rotation, and Adam Dunn (seven straight seasons with 38+ home runs) can catalyze the White Sox offense through 162 games.
3. Will the Rangers’ starting rotation cripple their chances of repeating as AL Champions?
Pitching will be the kryptonite of the Texas Rangers. Sound familiar? Nonetheless, pitchers C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis will have to duplicate their impressive performances in 2011, and new acquisition Brandon Webb will have to get healthy if the Rangers want to repeat as American League Champions. Josh Hamilton will remain among the elite hitters in the AL, and if Adrian Beltre can repeat his hot hitting from 2010, the Rangers will take the AL West due to the weakness of the rest of the teams in the division.
If there is one rival pitching staff that can shut down the Rangers’ potent offense, it’s the starting rotation of the A’s. This rotation had four pitchers with at least nineteen starts and an ERA of 3.50 or lower in 2010. The A’s are a mirror image of the Rangers—a lot of pitching with less hitting, so they may struggle to drive in runs. The LA Angels can make a splash in the division but only if Dan Haren pitches like he did during his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
4. Does any team pose an honest threat to the Phillies in the NL East?
Yes. Don’t get me wrong, I still view the Phillies as the favorite to take the NL East. They own the best starting rotation I have ever seen in professional baseball with aces Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. The Phillies also have strong hitting, but like any team, health remains a concern. Chase Utley and Brad Lidge are both beginning the season on the disabled list. Raul Ibanez proved that his thirty-four home run performance in 2009 was a fluke, and if Ryan Howard can’t figure out how to hit a breaking ball, his strikeout total will remain sky-high.
The Atlanta Braves will give the Phillies a run for their money all season. The Braves, in my opinion, boast one of the most underrated pitching staffs in the game. Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and rising star Jair Jurrjens are all capable of double-digit wins. Furthermore, the addition of slugger Dan Uggla from the Marlins to join Brian McCann and Martin Prado in the lineup will cause problems for opposing pitchers. And, sorry Mets fans, but your team is going to be a basement dweller this year. That’s right, they’ll be behind the Nationals.
5. Can the Cubs pass the rolling Reds and the Braun-led Brewers to claim the NL wild card?
Probably not, but the NL Central is always tough. The Reds won the division last year and the Cardinals dominated it during the previous decade. The Brewers made solid additions to their starting rotation that will propel them into the running for the division title, but I still like the Reds to win the division. Joey Votto has emerged as one of the best hitters in the game with a sweet stroke, and Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce compliment him well in the lineup. Volquez and Arroyo are solid in the pitching rotation, and if the sometimes-erratic Johnny Cueto can keep his composure, the Reds will continue their success.
The Brewers, with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the three and four slots, should continue to propel one of the most productive offenses in the National League. And the additions of Cy Young contender Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to the pitching rotation will do wonders for the Brewers’ staff.
The Cubs can compete if they keep their emotions under wraps (I’m looking at you, Zambrano) and find a way to produce runs for their pitchers, including new acquisition Matt Garza.
6. The Giants are finally defending World Champions, but can Lincecum and Cain shut down the Rockies?
Who would have guessed the San Francisco Giants would win the World Series last year? Not me. And I don’t think they’ll be able to do it again. Pitching will lead the Giants back to the playoffs, but no further. The combination of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain is one of the best 1-2 punches in the MLB, and there is no doubt they will continue their dominance. The question is whether Buster Posey can avoid the sophomore slump. If he and Aubrey Huff can produce and if Pablo Sandoval can return back to his offensive ways of the 2009 season, I see the Giants winning the division easily.
However, the Colorado Rockies present a very real threat to the Giants. They possess the big bats of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez; Gonzalez is looking to prove that he’s worthy of his new seven-year, $80 million contract. Flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez is scary on the mound and will establish himself as an elite pitcher in the National League. The LA Dodgers will remain in the mix for most of the season, but pitching will cause their downfall late in the season, and the new-look San Diego Padres will feel the pain from losing Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox during the offseason.
The 2011 MLB season promises to be an interesting one for the teams in each division. Enjoy rooting for your favorite this summer!
