2016 is shaping up to be an exciting year for men’s swimming, as the world’s most prestigious meet is fast approaching in August: the Summer Olympics, held in Rio de Janeiro.
But before the main event itself is held, hundreds of men will attempt to qualify for a spot on Rio’s roster at the Olympic Trials in Omaha, Nebraska, which will take place at the end of June.
While a lot can happen in the swimming world between now and when Trials take place, there is no doubt that those athletes who qualify will be as fast as ever.
Many familiar faces will be guaranteed a place on the men’s rosters, including the world-famous 18-time gold medalist, Michael Phelps; rival Ryan Lochte; distance freestyler Connor Jaeger; and backstroker Matt Grevers. At the same time, several young and new swimmers will be entering the fray, such as Cal backstroker Ryan Murphy; University of Florida freestyler Caeleb Dressel; Arizona breaststroker, Kevin Cordes; and 17-year old freestyler, Maxime Rooney, among others.
Keeping in mind that Trials are months away, based on the best times of 2015, here are my early predictions as to what to expect from Omaha and thus the roster for Rio:
Freestyle
The 50-meter freestyle will likely be in the hands of Nathan Adrian (21.37) and newcomer Caeleb Dressel (21.53). Cullen Jones (21.87), the silver medalist of 2012, will be performing at the fastest he has been since London, but it is in question whether or not he can take on Adrian and Dressel.
Both Adrian and Dressel are frontrunners for the 100-meter freestyle as well (48.31, 48.78). Additional possibilities are rookies Michael Chadwick (48.87) and Maxime Rooney (48.87).
Ryan Lochte leads the 200-meter freestyle (1:45.36), along with Conor Dwyer (1:46.62), both of whom are perennial favorites. They will be challenged by Rooney (1:47.10) and Zane Grothe (1:47.11).
In the 400-meter freestyle, Connor Jaeger leads the pack with 3:44.81, followed by Grothe (3:45.98) and Michael McBroom (3:46.69).
Dominating the 1500-meter freestyle is, again, Jaeger (14:41.20). Second place is currently disputed by Jordan Wilimvosky (14:57.05) and McBroom (14:57.07). Andrew Gemmel (15:09.92) and True Sweetser (15:10.73) should not be overlooked.
Strokes
In the 100-meter backstroke, newcomer Ryan Murphy (52.18) will face off with returning gold medalist Matt Grevers (52.54). Murphy goes on to rival Lochte in the 200-meter backstroke (1:55.00, 1:57.96), along with Tyler Clary (1:56.26) and Jacob Pebley (1:56.29).
This year, most of the men’s breaststrokers have never swam in an Olympic event and will try to fill the shoes of Olympians Eric Shanteau and Brendan Hansen. Currently Cody Miller leads the 100-meter (59.51), closely followed by Nicholas Fink (59.52) and fellow newcomer Kevin Cordes (1:00.27). Cordes is first in the country for the 200-meter (2:08.05), followed by Fink (2:08.89) and Miller (2:09.08).
Phelps is the undisputed favorite in the 100-meter butterfly (50.45); he is the three-time Olympic champ in this race. Underneath him is rookie Tom Shields (51.03) and Conger (51.33); Lochte also remains a threat (52.29).
Phelps remains on top in the 200-meter butterfly as well (1:52.94), but is challenged by younger competitors in Conger (1:54.54), Shields (1:55.75) and Clary (1:55.86).
Individual Medley and Relays
Lochte and Phelps will battle again in the 200-meter individual medley, with Phelps (1:54.75) edging out Lochte (1:55.81) at the end of 2015. Underneath them is Conor Dwyer (1:57.96), Josh Prenot (1:58.38) and rookie Will Licon (1:58.43).
In the 400-meter individual medley, Chase Kalisz (4:10.05) and Tyler Clary (4:11.71) are first and second, chased by Jay Litherland (4:12.43) and Prenot (4:13.15).
As for the relays, in 2012, the US took gold in both the 4×200-meter freestyle (6:59.70) and 4×100 medley (3:29.35). They lost only to France in the 4×100 freestyle (3:10.38). The National Team selects six of the top swimmers to compete in each relay, so it is impossible to guess who will top the roster at this point in time.
Over the coming months, it will be increasingly interesting to follow men’s swimming as more and more swimmers drop times and make Trials even more competitive.
Many of the younger men participating in the NCAA championship next month are expected to seriously challenge veterans like Lochte and Grevers. These predictions will become more concrete and finalized as Omaha approaches this summer. •
