Overall, this year’s democratic race has been very surprising. In New Hampshire’s primary, Hillary Clinton suffered an unprecedented loss. Though polls had predicted Sanders leading in New Hampshire for quite some time, the margin by which he won shows instability in Clinton’s campaign. When Sanders launched his campaign last spring, he was considered an outsider. Pundits thought Clinton would win by a mile and that the United States would probably keep a moderate democrat in the White House. When Bernie’s campaign gained traction over the summer, showing that he had strong backing among young people, analysts still questioned his ability to gain support from older democrats and minority populations.
On Feb. 9, Sanders captured every demographic in New Hampshire. He won among democrats young and old, rich and poor, with especially high numbers from new and/or low- income voters. The impact of Sander’s victory, however, should not be overstated. New Hampshire is one of the least diverse states in the nation, with a 94-percent white population. South Carolina may be the deal breaker for Sanders, as he will be challenged to appeal to a greater population of non-white voters.
Since winning New Hampshire, Sanders has gained some support from several significant figures in the black community, including author and MacArthur fellow Ta-Nehisi Coates, whose Between the World and Me won the National Book Award and the Kirkus Prize for nonfiction in 2015. Endorsements from other minority leaders will be integral as Sanders and Clinton move into South Carolina, where Clinton currently leads Sanders in minority voting. While Sanders polls well with both older and younger white democrats, he laps in comparative support among minority voters. The older minority generation tends to back Clinton, and while Sanders does relatively well among minority students, the overall vote still overwhelmingly supports Clinton; some polls among black voters in South Carolina show Clinton maintaining at least a 29-point lead.
Students at Connecticut College weighed in on the age disparities between supporters of Clinton and Sanders. “I do think it’s a generational difference, which is why people have been saying this is the ‘election of the youth,’” said one student when asked why she thought Clinton has more support from older voters. “In terms of parents, I feel like there’s more familiarity with Hillary Clinton. She’s been around for longer, and she’s more of a straightforward businessperson and activist. Parents and grandparents are leaning more toward someone who is saying her concrete plan.”
This has been the refrain of Sanders’ critics, many of whom support his economic vision but are skeptical of his ability to accomplish it. For an older democratic generation, most of whom supported Obama in 2008, Sanders’ radical views may be a turn-off. Clinton, as a woman, represents the unprecedented possibility of a female commander-in-chief. While Sanders boasts endorsements from former NAACP President Benjamin Jealous and Black Lives Matter activist Shaun King, Clinton’s political work has placed her in the favor of many minority voters. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries D-NY said to The Washington Post on Feb. 10 that “Hillary Clinton has been a true friend to the African American community for the last 40 years.” Polls show South Carolina as virtually opposite to the New Hampshire results, where Bernie Sanders won by 22 points. In South Carolina, polls project Clinton winning by a greater margin than that.
Sanders’ campaign has exceeded expectations. Nearly tying in Iowa and winning New Hampshire has benefitted his campaign. Barack Obama won in South Carolina in 2008, and it will be interesting to see how the democrats in South Carolina, where the majority of the electorate is black, change the democratic field. For Clinton, winning may propel her toward the White House, leaving Sanders in the dust. If Sanders is able to connect more with minority populations, however, he may have a clearer path to victory at the Democratic National Convention.
Sanders faces a setback, however, as Clinton prevailed in the Nevada caucus with a 5-percent margin over Sanders. The win served as a relief for the Clinton campaign because recent Nevada polls showed Sanders creeping up in popularity. Clinton stressed her support of people of color, particularly Latino immigrants, when campaigning in Nevada, and her success emphasizes the gap that Sanders must fill in order to win the minority vote.
As in New Hampshire, Donald Trump took the Republican primary in South Carolina. Jeb Bush dropped out of the race after his South Carolina loss. If Sanders defies the odds, the two may in fact come head to head this November, which would be perhaps the most ideologically extreme election in recent history. •
