The conflict in Syria has lasted almost a decade, and there seems to be no resolution in sight to resolve the issues that led to such a violent environment. The last couple of weeks have been especially critical to the civil war in Syria. People are now seeing it as the possible inception of another world war, as British tabloid The Sun asks: “Will There be a World War 3 and who would win?”
The conflict started when several protesters took action to state their pro-democracy stance and were killed by the military. As more took to the streets, a civil war broke out between those for and against Bashar al-Assad. The conflict has thrown the country into a state of chaos. Within this unstable environment is an intense conflict between as many as 1,000 opposition groups, as the BBC reports. These formations prompted nearby countries, as well as intercontinental allies and enemies of Syria, to take action. All of these factors brought Syria to the global stage, with Assad being brought to question by the United Nations for perpetrating war crimes.
With these recent events, the United States, together with the United Kingdom and France, suspects that Syria attacked its own citizens with chemical weapons. In response to this attack, these three nations initiated missile strikes on specific targets within Syria. Despite the fact that the US warned Russian officials about their attacks beforehand, so as not to harm any Russian assets in Syria, the Russians were furious at the US. Russia retaliated at a UN meeting that took place afterwards. It demanded that the UN condemn the missile attacks but after a vote, Russia’s request was rejected. During this vote, China supported Russia’s decision and seemed to be siding with Russia. It was after this meeting in which theorists started to speculate whether a new world war would break out, and who the participants may be on each opposing side.
Even though the United States, France, and the UK seem to be on one side– and Russia and China seem to be on the other–there are still many unknowns that prevent people from calling this situation an all-out war. Turkey has been placing more and more troops on its southeastern border as situations continue to escalate and has taken a stance against Assad by providing arms to rebels named the Free Syrian Army, going as far to train them and to place them under the control of Turkish Intelligence. In addition, Turkey has accepted millions of refugees running away from Assad, as The Guardian and The Yale Review of International Studies indicate. Besides the conflict between Turkey and Syria, Israel is fighting its own battles against Palestine, as well as Iran and Iraq. The threat of ISIS that muddies the waters within the Middle East also creates challenges in the region. While it may be plausible to say that a world war was always on the horizon, the conflicts within Syria and the Middle East in general have accelerated tensions to a breaking point.
Russia and the US have long taken a combative stance against one another. China has also competed with the US in terms of military might and economic dominance, as both currently impose import tariffs on one another. Outside of the Middle East, diplomatic relations between the three countries have been sketchy at best. Whether it is North Korea and its possibilities for nuclearization that have escalated the tensions between the US, South Korea, Japan, and China, or the 2016 elections that have initiated a probing into relations between the United States and Russia, the United States has been torn between multiple other nations as well as the Middle East.
It should also be stated that the United States’ allyships are not clearly defined, as relations between the UK and France seem strained. Ever since exiting the EU, the UK has been dealing with its own restructuring process and remains unsure of what actions to take when it comes international politics. On the other hand, Donald Trump increased tensions between the US and France by withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord in June, although French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to the White House was characterized with “friendship and kindness” by the Los Angeles Times and labeled a “bromance” by the New York Times. France also has several national matters at hand, especially when it comes to terrorism. Ever since bombings in Paris took place, the French have initiated Opération Sentinelle, which has placed their military within civilian areas, resulting in a slight lack of military presence on the global stage, focusing on national security.
In the end, the lingering question is still: Will World War III happen? If it does, will it happen soon, or maybe a decade or so later? It is plausible that the worst of the violence will not take place within the countries that are to be considered superpowers and stable. Rather, it will begin in the Middle East, where every country has either been converted into a war zone due to both internal and external powers–whether it is rebel groups, the militia, or the United States, deploying troops to Iraq, as well as Russia, supplying weapons to Syria–or has been recently established, meaning that it is fragile enough to be lead to chaos. Such a war would involve new technological developments within the military, such as the F-35 fighter jet and unmanned drones, that would result in fewer troop deployments and less human involvement. One could also expect the use of nuclear weaponry as the United States, as well as Russia and more recently North Korea, have either been monitoring their nuclear arsenals or developing their weaponry to reach longer distances.
Even though one would find immense satisfaction in discovering the exact answer, like with most situations related to politics and diplomatic relations, it is nearly impossible to be certain. There are too many variables at play. Whether it is national problems that the French and the British are trying to resolve, international relations between the United States and Eastern countries, international investigations, or even economic relations, there is too much present on the table for countries to just risk it all and go to war with each other. However, it is certain that the world has never been this close to World War III since the Cold War era, and it does not seem like the tensions will be dissipating anytime soon.
