Ever since a failed coup by the Turkish military in 2016, Turkey has undergone a steady political decline that seems unalterable. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become much more aggressive when it comes to implementing his agenda. He has instituted a boycott of American electronics, silenced critics of his administration, and threatened his political rivals. The latest Presidential election, which featured political candidates Erdoğan and Muharrem İnce, ended in total chaos. Ballot boxes were stolen, disregarded or burnt. Contributing to the country’s current instability, the economy has also taken a massive hit recently. The increasing value of foreign currencies such as the British Pound, the Euro and the American Dollar impact the prices of all imports and the spending power of Turkish citizens.
As Turkey’s stability continues to decrease and the country slowly crawls towards authoritarian rule, how should the rest of the world respond? Why is Turkey different than any other country that is destabilized or experiencing some kind of civil war or interference from outside forces?
First of all, Turkey is the bridge between the Middle East and Europe, a connection that benefits and affects both regions. There are several transportation lines which go through Turkey that help import and export goods from the Middle East and Europe, benefitting both sides economically. If Turkey becomes destabilized and incapable of transporting goods, this might affect the economy of the Middle East and Europe. The resulting economic downturn would cause further conflict and backlash within the Middle East, while European countries may be forced to find other, potentially more costly routes to import said goods. Another possibility is the migration of the masses. Since Turkey is physically connected to two continents, instability in the country may result in the migration of both Syrian refugees and Turkish migrants towards Europe. Migration, in turn, may contribute to the ensuing refugee crisis and prompt European countries to start taking drastic measures to limit the intake of refugees.
Secondly, Turkey’s potential collapse could result with the country allying with a super power, such as Russia or the US, which could start a whole new set of problems for the rest of the world. Since Turkey’s location is right under Russia’s busiest ports, if the US forms an alliance with Turkey, there might be stricter regulations for Russia, which might result in tensions rising amongst the two superpowers. Similarly, if Russia forms an alliance with Turkey, its apprehension of vital transportation lines might result with European countries becoming more aggressive towards Russia, which might result in tensions rising once again. On the other hand, if Turkey joins an alliance with Middle Eastern countries, Russia and the United States may institute a much more aggressive approach to the Middle East. Both countries could conceivably tr to seize control of Turkey.
All of these possible scenarios beg the question: How can all of this be prevented? Truth be told, as of now, it cannot. Erdoğan seems adamant at seizing every possible facet of power. He has devalued the Senate and has given himself the power to make unilateral alterations to the law. Erdoğan has also allowed himself to stay at his position for many more years to come. His attitude towards foreign leaders has shown that he is not in favor of receiving help from other countries, letting alone listen to their advice, which has weakened international alliances.
One possible scenario to stabilize Turkey is through popular revolt. As the price of basic items such as food, housing, fuel, electricity and water continue to rise, a possible protest by the people might dethrone Erdoğan. However, this scenario would not immediately improve the situation in Turkey. Rather, popular protests would have the opposite effect. The country would continue on a path of decline as it tried to find a new leader and correct its way of governance. But, once this issue is resolved, the country would once again be able to build its relationships and its economy.
Why does all of this matter if nothing can be done directly by anybody outside of Turkey? Well, one advantage Erdoğan has is the lack of coverage of the events taking place within Turkey, as his strict grip over the media has stifled any negative press regarding him or his governance from being released online or outside. If more people become aware of the what is happening in Turkey and realize the possible impact of Erodoğan’s policies, then world leaders would be more inclined to support the people of Turkey, impact local politics through protests and encourage free speech. In the end, history proves that Turkey has been a great bridge of cross-cultural interaction. It has provided opportunities for foreign economies to flourish and become a great spot for tourism. As of now, these bridges need to be repaired or a possible collapse is imminent. •
