Women’s March in Washington DC. Photo by Roya Ann Miller/Unsplash.
On September 25th, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced a formal investigation into the 45th president, Donald Trump. It’s only the fourth impeachment inquiry in American history, and it has (unsurprisingly) been dominating media and the dynamic of the looming 2020 presidential election for the past few weeks. Here are 6 answers to questions you might have been too afraid to ask in today’s confusing political climate:
What Is This Inquiry About?
The House is charging Trump with “betraying his oath of office,” according to Pelosi, over his conduct with Ukraine. According to the first whistleblower from a US intelligence official, Trump’s July 25th call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky showed the president urging the Ukraine government to investigate former Vice President and 2020 candidate Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. This was just days after Trump told a White House official to withhold $400 million in military aid to Ukraine. Involving a foreign entity in U.S. elections is an impeachable offense.
What is Impeachment?
First of all, there is a difference between impeachment and an impeachment inquiry. In American politics, when a government official is impeached — keeping in mind that the term impeachment only is constitutionally correct for select government positions — it means the House has voted to charge that official with a certain offence/misconduct and thus begins the process of removing them from office. According to the Constitution, a president’s impeachment can be conducted for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” For impeachment to actually occur, a majority vote is needed in the House and the Senate can then convict the president with a 2⁄3 majority vote. However, it is not entirely clear what exactly constitutes an impeachable offence, which is partly why an impeachment inquiry may not lead to removal.
How Does An Impeachment Inquiry Work?
Any formal impeachment investigation begins with an inquiry, at least according to historical precedent. In this case, Nancy Pelosi set forth the investigation that was initiated by an anonymous whistleblower complaint filed in August 2019. If there are suspected breaches of power such as the aforementioned “treason” and “bribery,” then the House has the ability to move forward with the investigation. Right now, lawmakers in the House are busy collecting witnesses and subpoenaing them to speak before Court. The House Judiciary Committee must vote on these alleged encroachments of power by Trump before the charges advance to a full House vote for denying or accepting these charges. The charges come from breaches of the Constitution, which are called articles of impeachment.
How Common Is Impeachment?
In American history, not very. Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon are the only two presidents that followed roughly the same process as today. Nixon was infamously charged with obstruction of justice (but resigned before the House vote), and Clinton for lying under oath and obstruction of justice. Andrew Johnson was also charged with articles of impeachment for high crimes and misdemeanors but the Senate failed to convict him.
How Will This Impact The 2020 Election And Polling?
Right now, there is a fear by some that impeachment could strengthen Trump’s standing in the 2020 elections, while there are also many who suggest that the inquiry might have little to no effect on Trump’s electability and polls rating. Republicans are either staying silent or actively supporting the president during this investigation. And since this inquiry stems partly from Trump’s accusations against Biden and his son’s cryptic dealings with Ukraine, Biden will inevitably be called into the investigation–a troubling circumstance for someone who is both a key figure in the inquiry itself and also a 2020 front-runner. Biden’s future poll numbers will rest in how many Democratic voters react to this impeachment inquiry. The potential fluctuation of Biden’s base would also have implications for other Democratic candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who have recently been moving up in the polls. The impeachment inquiry is also providing motivation for the Democratic candidates lagging behind since the future is more or less unclear in terms of Biden’s standing among democratic voters. In the meantime, though, Trump is taking to Twitter to help relay some of the damage caused by this investigation and bringing in other key political figures such as Mitt Romney to this web of impeachment, suggesting that he too, should be “impeached.”
What Is Going To Happen Next?
To start, Trump administration officials including Vice President Mike Pence and Energy Department sSecretary Rick Perry must come forward with information related to the Ukraine inquiry. Some will do this via a subpoena. Others are expected to be interviewed in the coming weeks, such as US State Department Counselor Thomas Ulrich Brechbuhl and Trump’s former top Russia adviser Fiona Hill. On Friday, Rick Perry faces a subpoena to turn over documents relevant to the inquiry. Mick Mulvaney, the current acting White House Chief of Staff has been subpoenaed by House Democrats. There are a multitude of other key government figures testifying, interviewing, and speaking soon on the inquiry, and possibly many more to come. •
