Photo courtesy of Jess Blanksteen.
Last time around, I discussed the newly instituted diversity rules that the Oscars will be implementing in 2024, and how not only will they not make any real change, but also how the Oscars’ problems lay in deeper rooted, more specific biases.
If you didn’t read part one, or just need a refresher (Although c’mon, just read my article. Trust me, they’ve been called “I guess readable” by my boss!), here’s a quick recap:
Oscar movies are almost deliberately not the most financially successful or most popular movies that general audiences go out to see. They are overwhelmingly released during “awards season” from October to December. They carry very specific themes, traits and subject matter and are disproportionately voted upon by, on average, 63 year-old-white guys.
Last time around I referenced my anecdotal, but well researched theory that Oscar movies first and foremost must feel important, and therefore almost always belong to at least one of the five subcategories:
A. Based on a true story
B. Social/Political commentary or relevance
C. Set in the past or depicts history
D. Showcases or heavily discusses Hollywood, filmmaking or the artistic process
E. Based on famous or well respected source material
Seriously, this is like 90% of Best Picture nominees.
With all of this in mind, let’s break down these categories, and analyze what they mean for which movies are actually considered by the supposed “biggest night in Hollywood”.
A. Based on a true story
I referenced this last time, but the last time the Oscars went a whole ceremony without giving Best Picture, Best Actress or Best Actor to a movie based on a true story was for 65th Academy Awards, celebrating the best in film of 1992. “Based on a true story” is one of the bigger tip offs for potential “Oscar bait”. If you see this in a trailer for a movie coming out in the fall, you know what their intentions are. Biopics are particularly popular in acting categories, because the act of playing a real life figure on screen seems to have a sense of gravitas, as well as an additional component of voters actually being able to compare the performance to a real example. “Wow those really do look and sound like Maggie Thatcher and Winston Churchill. Therefore the acting is good!” Performances based on original characters typically have no such advantage as there isn’t a real “Nicole Barber” to make a comparison. Biopic performances of real people in the entertainment industry typically garner the most attention. Hollywood loves to vote on performances of their very own icons, especially when they show a relatable lifestyle with similar problems. I called Renee Zellweger winning Best Actress five months before the Oscars despite how mediocre Judy was for these very reasons. I was right.
Examples: The King’s Speech, The Imitation Game, Spotlight, Bohemian Rhapsody
Other Stats:
- In the 91st Academy Awards for 2018, 4 of the 5 Best Actor Nominees were for Biopic performances
- Of the 88 movies nominated for Best Picture in the past decade, one third of them are based on a true story
B. Social/Political Commentary or Relevance
Movies with political or social relevance feel more important than movies without. Regardless of how elementary or actually irrelevant their commentary may be (Green Book), these movies feel like they “have something to say,” and can easily be argued to a higher form of art because they are “important to see right now.” This category typically deals with issues related to social justice, but they can even be as watered down as simply the race, gender or sexual orientation of the characters. They just have to feel progressive enough so that 63-year-old white people feel good, but not challenging enough so that they feel too sad, too alienated or too stupid. A lot of these movies are actually quite good, but a lot of them really don’t hold up. If the movie is the type of thing that Rose’s parents would brag to Chris about having seen in the first act of Get Out, the Oscars are gonna eat it up.
Examples: The Kids Are All Right, The Help, Hidden Figures.
C. Set in the past/Depicts History
Weirdly, this is the big one. It makes some degree of sense though, when you look at it as
if it were another medium. Just as Harry Potter is a book, so are history books and textbooks. One feels more important, more intellectual than the other, regardless of entertainment factor or actual quality of writing. Historical movies feel important as they depict our past (whether real or fictionalized) and the important issues that transpired during it. They’re “educational” and carry a certain weight with them. They also may even feel more theatrical, as typically there are period costumes, and other relevant details like accents that add prestige, These are the big ones that feel profoundly intellectual, if not academic. In fact, many of the films that dabble in genres outside of the Academy’s narrow field of vision typically have to take place in the past. “Action-y” films like Django Unchained or Dunkirk have to take place in a historical period, or carry the weight and importance of slavery or war to be considered. Either that or the social relevance of a Black Panther.
Examples: True Grit, War Horse, Les Miserables, Lincoln, 12 Years a Slave, Bridge of Spies,Hacksaw Ridge, The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread, Ford v Ferrari & 1917
Other Stats:
- Of the 88 movies nominated for Best Picture in the past decade, 65% of them take place in the past.
- Of the 9 movies nominated for Best Picture for 2019, 7 of them take place in the past
D. Showcases or heavily discusses Hollywood, filmmaking or the artistic process
This one is the easiest to analyze and the easiest to spot. Hollywood likes movies that make Hollywood look good, or like being a part of Hollywood is a profound, meaningful profession. In fact, this even extends tangentially to other fields that deal with the Artistic process. If you’re a writer, a singer or even a racecar driver, if you have relatable artistic troubles as an Oscar voter, your odds increase. Argo was one of the easier Best Picture winners to predict as it is based on a true story, depicts a distinct period of history and makes Hollywood the hero.
Nothing makes Hollywood look better or feel more important than movies made by Hollywood about Hollywood looking good and being important.
Examples: The Artist, Birdman, La La Land, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
E. Based on famous or well respected source material
Profundity by proxy! Nothing makes a movie seem like high art than by making a movie based on high art. Novels, plays or even older classic films all provide great frameworks. If Little Women the book, and Fences the play are prestigious, then therefore the movies based on them must be as well. Like rule C, I believe that the only way certain genre films have a shot at a nomination is if they’re based on something that has already been deemed intellectual enough. It’s the only reason I think Dune (whenever it comes out) has a shot at a Best Picture nom, and I still believe that if The Silence of the Lambs or The Lord of the Rings were not based on books, and original properties instead, they may not have even been nominated, let alone won.
Examples: Brooklyn, The Martian, Fences, Little Women
F. Misery Movies (Bonus Category!!)
The only other category I can see that may come up semiconsitently is what I call “The Misery Movie.” Hard dramas that deal with super serious subject matter like Mental Illness, disability, addiction or other ailments. Typically these stories usually fall into another one of the categories, but this is on to look out for as well.
Examples: The Descendants, Dallas Buyers Club, Manchester by the Sea.
Conclusion
If the Oscars are actually looking to make changes, which I’m not even sure they really are, they may want to start here and work outwards. These are not inherently terrible rules even. A lot of the movies I named, and a lot of other classics and personal favorites, fall into these categories and certainly deserve all of the praise they deserve. My problem comes when just good, or even mediocre movies receive Best Picture nominations instead of great ones that don’t. Just because The Post plays by these rules doesn’t mean it deserves a nomination over Baby Driver, The Big Sick or Blade Runner 2049.
For an institution that is supposedly the highest reference of quality in film, you’d think more people would believe in you, or care what you think. Maybe all of this (and everything in part 1) is why they don’t.
And for my boldest point yet, with the next Oscars more than six months away, I bet you’re so predictable that I can narrow down which movies could win Best Picture:
Either Mank, Nomadland, One Night in Miami or The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win Best Picture. And none of these movies are even out yet.
Prove me wrong.
