Photo courtesy of Unsplash.
Despite the fact that most of us haven’t been to a movie theater in over a year, there’s still going to be an Oscars this Sunday. Make yourself some money and bet your whole stimulus check on my picks rights here.
Best Picture
This is one of the safer bets this year, but if I’ve learned anything it’s that if one Oscar race is usually going to be a huge upset, it’s Best Picture. However, this year the safest bet is probably Nomadland. For a movie to win Best Picture it either needs a Screenplay award, the Director award, or both. The last time a movie won BP without winning one of those two was for Chicago in the 2002 Oscar race, and that was seen as an outlier. If a movie wins both a screenplay and the director Oscars, its odds to win Picture are nearly certain, and if it loses with those two it’s seen as a shocking upset. In 2005, Brokeback Mountain lost in what is considered one of the worst Oscar decisions in history to Crash. Brokeback won Adapted Screenplay and Director, Crash won Original Screenplay and would ultimately take Picture. When there’s a close race, you really have to pay attention to these categories in particular. In 2010, The King’s Speech took Original Screenplay and The Social Network took Adapted. It all came down to Director, and when Tom Hooper upset David Fincher, you knew which movie was taking Picture.
This year however, there isn’t a typical two-horse race and Nomadland is the clear frontrunner. Of the four main precursor awards (the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice, the Guild Awards and the BAFTAs) Nomadland has swept all four of them. This has not happened since 12 Years a Slave in 2013, and that movie easily took the Oscar’s top prize. This is not to mention that Nomadland is a near lock for Best Director, and a strong favorite for Adapted Screenplay.
The only reason I’m concerned is due to the past two Oscar races. Last year, Parasite didn’t win any of the precursor awards, but took the SAG ensemble (which could be considered a legitimate precursor now), and ultimately Best Picture at the Oscars. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the only movie I’d consider a possible contender against Nomadland and it just won SAG. However, Parasite was ineligible for some of the other precursor awards and can be argued as sort of a unique case. I’m also getting flashbacks to the race before that one, where Green Book upset Roma. Green Book took Original Screenplay and Roma took Director, but it was Green Book that got itself Best Picture. I’m a little concerned that this year’s race could be similar with the slower, more artistic, methodical film (Nomadland /Roma) taking Director and the uplifting, 1960s white liberal fantasy (The Trial of the Chicago 7/ Green Book) taking Original Screenplay and Picture. Knowing the Academy’s voting base this is certainly possible, but considering Trial hasn’t taken any precursor besides SAG Ensemble, and at this point it’s likely not taking Original Screenplay, I’m probably just talking myself out of the right decision.
Verdict: Probably Nomadland
Best Director
Chloé Zhao. Lock. Donezo. She has won everything. She took the Golden Globe, she took the Critics’ Choice, she took the Director’s Guild and she took the BAFTA. The only movie that I think challenges Nomadland for Best Picture doesn’t even have a Best Director nomination. She’ll be the second woman ever, and first woman of color to win this award. Of the people nominated, she did the best job, she’s got the best narrative, she’s probably got Best Picture, she’s winning the Oscar.
Verdict: Definitely Chloé Zhao
Best Actress
Absolute. S**t show.
Of the four major precursors for the acting awards, each one has gone to a different nominee. I can’t remember the last time this happened, well, ever. Andra Day took the Golden Globe, Carey Mulligan took the Critics’ Choice, Viola Davis took the SAG and Frances McDormand took the BAFTA. This is a total f**kin’ nightmare. Last year I went 4/4 for the acting categories at the Oscars, because while there can still be surprises, the acting categories are usually relatively predictable. Each of the four winners last year swept the precursors respectively. So we’ll break it down here of who I guess is most likely to win here.
- Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
I think she’s the only one here without a real shot. The movie has no other nominations, and she hasn’t won a precursor. No chance she’s beating all four of the other nominees.
- Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Normally, for a movie that’s probably taking Picture and certainly Director, if it also has a lead acting nominee, there’s a stronger chance. However, here I think the fact that Frances McDormand has two Lead Actress Oscars already, make her chances slim. Very few people have at least 3 acting Oscars, and only two of those few have three or more exclusively for lead performances. The Academy usually likes to be democratic and considering McDormand won her second Lead Actress Oscar only three years ago leads me to believe she’s probably not first in votes here.
- Andra Day – The United States VS. Billie Holiday
A Golden Globe win is a big deal. And normally I’d say that a movie with only one nomination going up against stronger competition has super low odds, but it was only last year that a biopic performance about a singer/entertainer from the mid 20th century somehow took home Best Actress despite it being its only nomination (Renée Zellweger in Judy). Oscar bait usually tracks well, and this is not an exception. I would not be surprised if her performance as Billie Holiday got her this award. Seriously keep an eye out.
- Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Viola Davis is Viola Davis. There’s no chance she retires or dies without a second Oscar, and this really could be it. She’s terrific in this movie, and it would be more than fitting and certainly earned. The only reservation I have is the fact that since this movie will probably win Best Actor, yet it didn’t earn a Best Picture nominee, I think Davis’s odds are lower. The acting branch of the Academy is the biggest group, and I’m unsure they would vote for the winners of Best Actor and Best Actress in the same movie, yet not vote for the movie to at least be nominated for Picture. Still, it’s a great performance and would not come at all as a surprise if she took home the gold.
- Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Not only is Mulligan fantastic in this movie, it could be argued that she’s “due” for an Oscar. Additionally, Promising Young Woman is the only other movie in this category besides Nomadland to earn a Best Picture nomination. It’ll likely take Original Screenplay, and I think Mulligan’s performance and awards campaign has probably edged her out amongst the competition. She’s the only performance here that both hasn’t won an Oscar yet and is in a film nominated for Best Picture.
Verdict: VERY Tentatively Carey Mulligan (Preparing for a Surprise Though)
Best Actor
Any other year, especially given his BAFTA win, I’d feel the need to consider Anthony Hopkins for The Father more heavily, but I really think it’s going to Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. I don’t think the Academy is going to pass up the opportunity to honor one of the most talented, and culturally significant actors of the past decade after his tragic death this past August. I also think that while his death is of course a factor here, his performance was legitimately great and would merit recognition any year.
Verdict: Almost Definitely Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actress
Initially this looked like it was going to Maria Bakalova for her performance in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, but I think the tides have changed. Yuh-jung Youn in Minari has just won both the SAG and the BAFTA back to back. And given that the somewhat pretentious Academy is probably less likely to vote for a performance as ridiculous and comedic as Bakalova’s, I think this is ultimately the safer bet.
Verdict: Probably Yuh-jung Youn
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya. He’s won everything. He deserved all of them. He’s the best here. To say his performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah is electric is an understatement. He very well could be the best performance actually nominated this year (still upset about Delroy Lindo), and will probably be the most deserving win of the night.
Verdict: Definitely Daniel Kaluuya
Best Original Screenplay
I’m not 100% ready to disregard the Academy’s love of Aaron Sorkin as well as their inclination towards a safer, quippy, politically relevant, upbeat movie like The Trial of the Chicago 7. It’s the safer choice, especially if the Academy really wants this movie to win Best Picture. However, due to it winning more precursors, the Academy’s recent trajectory towards voting for more genre/offbeat/ even a little f**ked up choices in this category recently like Get Out, and the fact that it’s also just better, I’m going with Promising Young Woman.
Verdict: Hopefully Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
There’s a very slim chance that a dark horse like The Father could emerge after its BAFTA win, but I think Nomadland is safely taking this one. Pair that with the Director win and I think this will be key in securing Nomadland’s Best Picture trophy.
Verdict: Almost Definitely Nomadland
Below The Line:
Best Cinematography: Nomadland (Backup: Mank)
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Backup: Mank)
Best Film Editing: True toss-up between Sound of Metal & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ehhhhh…. Call it Sound of Metal although the Academy loves the flashy
style of Trial.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Score: Soul
Best Original Song: “Speak Now” From One Night in Miami
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Animated Feature: Soul
Best International Feature: Another Round
Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha
Best Live Action Short: The Letter Room
