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7 Super Bowl Championships, 3 NFL MVPs, countless memorable moments, and one greatest-quarterback-of-all-time career later, Tom Brady is calling it quits. Or is he? Ever since Brady officially announced his retirement on Tuesday, Feb. 1, speculation has been rampant about whether or not he will come out of retirement for one last stint in the league. Despite being 44, it’s undeniable that it feels like Brady has another good year or two of football in him.
Rumors of Brady’s return to play have been stirred up by several prominent members of the NFL media, including Bill Simmons, Scott Zolak and Mike Florio. Brady himself has done nothing to quell these rumors, stoking more fuel to the fire last week by saying “you never know” when asked if he would come back and play. All of the speculation of a Michael Jordan-esque, Washington Wizards return to play have centered around Brady playing for one team and one team only, and it isn’t Tampa Bay. It seems that if he comes out of retirement, Tom Brady would be going home. And no, not home to the New England Patriots.
When Brady first left New England, it became quite clear which team he wanted to play for the most. Brady grew up in San Mateo, California, about 40 minutes south of San Francisco. As a kid growing up in the 1980s in the Bay Area, the young Brady got to witness the San Francisco 49ers dynasty first hand. He idolized Joe Montana as a kid, the man who led the Niners to four of their five Super Bowls, and the man who preceded Brady as the likely greatest quarterback of all time.
When Brady announced he was leaving New England after the 2020 season, the 49ers made too much sense for him. They were coming off a Super Bowl run in which the only area of improvement seemed to be the quarterback position. They sported a loaded, young roster featuring the likes of TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, and more, and a great young coach in Kyle Shanahan. It even came out this season that Tom Brady told his former wide receiver (and 49ers wide receiver coach from 2019-2021) Wes Welker that he wanted to come to San Francisco.
However, the Niners opted to stick with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the man who New England originally drafted as Brady’s eventual successor before opting to trade him to the West Coast in 2017. In hindsight, that decision was a mistake by San Francisco. Brady led Tampa Bay to a title the next season while Garoppolo and the Niners suffered through a barrage of injuries and missed the playoffs. At the time, the Niners logic was sound. Garoppolo was coming off of an excellent statistical season, even if the eye test was shaky at points. He was (and still is) loved in the Niners locker room, and was just one missed throw away from winning a Super Bowl. Not to mention the fact that 2019 had been one of Brady’s worst seasons.
In 2022, things are different. The Niners made the NFC title game, but have been planning to move on from Garoppolo since they traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select North Dakota State QB Trey Lance third overall. Lance was the youngest quarterback in the class, and widely considered to be very raw and in need of a lot of development. Next season the Niners will be built to win the Super Bowl, with a roster that’s nearly as good as the one that almost won the Super Bowl in 2019. The plan was for Lance to sit behind Garoppolo for one season to learn and then eventually take the reins in 2022, ala Patrick Mahomes sitting behind Alex Smith in Kansas City in his rookie year. Garoppolo’s play in 2021 was widely criticized, and while he had some great moments it was clear why the 49ers decided that they will move on from him when the new league year starts on March 16th.
With San Francisco almost certainly moving on from Garoppolo, the question shifts to Lance. Almost all NFL pundits agree that his ceiling is sky-high. He has physical tools reminiscent of Mahomes and Bills QB Josh Allen, two of the five best QBs in the league today. But is he ready? He’s only going to be 22 years old at the start of next season. In two games he started this season when Garoppolo was hurt he showed flashes of his immense potential but also showed growing pains. The Niners only have so much room for growing pains next season. They are a team that is built to win now. Pressure will be high on everyone in the organization to capture that ever-elusive sixth Super Bowl. If Lance isn’t ready to lead the Niners, Brady makes sense.
Even though he is officially retired, Tampa still owns the rights to Brady so the Niners would need to trade for him (similar to what Tampa did to acquire Rob Gronkowski from New England in 2020). The trade idea that has been floated is the 49ers would send Garoppolo and a draft pick to Tampa for the rights to Brady, and Brady would then unretire. Now why would Tampa do this? Well based on the buzz around the league it seems quite clear that Brady doesn’t want to play for Tampa again, and the only thing that could lure him out of retirement is a chance at a homecoming on the team he grew up rooting for.
It could work out perfectly for San Francisco if Lance needs another year. He is still the long term plan in the city by the bay, but when the GOAT is interested in joining your team you have to listen, and Lance could also benefit from sitting and learning for one more year behind an all time great quarterback, similar to how Aaron Rodgers sat for several years behind Brett Favre in Green Bay. Mike Florio, who covers the NFL for NBC said last week that Brady “will certainly” be starting for San Francisco come week one of next season. Although they haven’t directly referenced Brady, the two greatest QBs in 49ers’ history, Montana and Steve Young have both said in the past week that they don’t think that Lance is ready.
Will Brady stage one last dance in the City by The Bay? As a 49ers fan myself, I personally wouldn’t bet on it happening, but it’s impossible to rule out. Brady’s deep connections to the Bay Area are well known. His parents still live there, and like the slew of elite quarterbacks in the league today who grew up in Northern California (Rodgers and Allen), he was a die hard 49ers fan as a kid. The Niners have a roster that can rival anybody’s in the league, a great coach, and might have a need at QB if Lance isn’t ready. If he wants, and if the 49ers feel it right, they could let Lance learn behind the GOAT for one year and then hand him the reins as Brady rides off into the sunset, ideally with another Lombardi trophy. However likely or unlikely it may be, imagine the storyline it would create. The greatest QB of all time returning for one last season to his favorite childhood team, with a chance to end the longest Super Bowl drought in the proud history of the 49ers and the chance to win an unprecedented eighth Super Bowl title for himself as his final act.
