Courtesy of Jose Francisco Morales
Expectations continue to be shattered in the baseball world as this year’s MLB postseason trudges along. Top seeds have gotten pummeled and subsequently eliminated by lower seeds, and as such, most people’s predictions for whichever team was to come out on top have been flipped on their heads. With that said, this is not by any means the first time that this has happened in baseball leading up to the Fall Classic, and rule changes in recent years coupled with the nature of the sport may well be the culprit.
In 2022, the Los Angeles Dodgers finished their season with a franchise record 111 wins. They were a terrifying team led by Mookie Betts and the recently acquired Freddie Freeman. However, they would inevitably be usurped in the National League Division Series by the Wild Card San Diego Padres, who, with only 89 wins, had already eliminated the 101-win New York Mets in the Wild Card Round. This is similar to an infamous historical example of the 2001 Seattle Mariners. After having logged 116 wins, tying the 1906 Chicago Cubs for the most regular season wins in the modern era, the Mariners would go on to fall to the 95-win New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series four games to one, proving that this is no new occurrence.
This postseason has proved similarly surprising. The National League top seed Atlanta Braves fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in four games in the NLDS for the second time in a row. Even more jarring, the American League top seed Baltimore Orioles were swept in the American League Division Series, falling to the fifth seed Texas Rangers who had just eliminated the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays and remained undefeated upon entering the American League Championship Series against the reigning World Champion Houston Astros.
With baseball having now reached the World Series, a matchup that seemed incredibly unlikely given their underdog status in their respective leagues, has arisen. The Texas Rangers from the American League face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks from the National League, after the D-Backs ended the Phillies’ run in 7 games. Being fifth and sixth seeds in their respective leagues, it would have been very reasonable to suspect that neither team would see the World Series, much less their league championship series. Since 2013, only six of the winning teams have been number one seeds, as well as only 12 since 1995, with this season being yet another exception.
Why does this seem to be the case? There could be a few possible reasons as to why teams that performed in the regular season at a lower level than 100+ win teams have a similar competitive edge to the latter. The first of which being the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Starting in 1994, the MLB instituted the Wild Card Round, allowing another team from every league a spot in the postseason. This would be expanded to two teams in 2012, and eventually three teams in the 2022 season. The increase in the number of teams allowed more lower ranked teams to enter the playoffs, thus making the month of October a more competitive tossup. Another change that made it easier for lower seeds is that the Wild Card was expanded from a single-game round to a three game series. By doing this, the lowest seed potentially has a greater chance of advancing, with one loss no longer spelling the end of the team’s run. Another important factor is pitching. In the regular season, games are played almost daily by every team with the All-Star Break being the exception. This has important ramifications for pitchers. Because the postseason has plenty of off-days, pitchers are able to recover better and for far longer than they normally would, which can lead to better performance and bullpen utilization in the postseason than what was previously seen through the regular season.
A huge factor that seems to have been plaguing the higher performing teams is rust. Rust is when a team that was at the top during the regular season begins to play at a lower level in the postseason. This can due to a combination of factors, from performance fatigue to the lack of rest that comes with big league baseball. As a result, the “better” teams perform at a lower standard than normal whereas the various Wild Card teams have several advantages on their side when it comes to advancing.
The World Series is around the corner, with one team that has never won it all facing off against another that has only claimed the title in 2001. As a result, the endgame of Major League Baseball seems more like a game of chance as opposed to being rewarding to teams that worked the hardest throughout the regular season. Whether any attempt at change is to come remains to be seen, but for now it seems the MLB is leaning more into the parity side as opposed to the raw competitive side.
