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What Exit Polls Tell Us About the Future of Education

Courtesy of Phillip Oroni


The 2024 election is over, and mainstream media has been trying to avoid the often overused word “unprecedented” to describe the results. I would agree, as this slice of history is no longer unprecedented. Trump’s party is the new precedent.

At first, it was not a particularly close race. Donald Trump swept the swing states, decisively taking the rust and sun belts. Republicans also now dominate Congress, collecting the Senate and, recently, the House of Representatives. He managed to win the popular vote, something that a Republican candidate has not accomplished since the Bush administration in 2004. But as votes were tallied, recent polls indicate he won by only the slimmest margins. Yet, President-elect Trump has continuously used the word “landslide” to describe his win.

Trump promised many things along the campaign trail. The most disconcerting of which, along with the looming threat of Project 2025, is the promise to upend and abolish the federal Department of Education (DOE). In what the GOP platform calls “A Return to Common Sense,” Trump’s plan will actually be an irrevocable threat to education as an institution and a practice. His administration plans to relocate the DOE’s funds directly to states and allow them to decide what to do with it. Without the department, conservatives plan on instating merit pay for K-12 teachers, meaning that teacher’s salaries would depend on the performance of their class; gutting public schooling by incentivizing private education through “universal choice” federal funding; and advocating for religious freedoms in public schools, which might violate the separation of church and state. Trump also vowed to reinstate the 1776 Commission, which upholds the idea that the United States was founded at the conception of the Declaration of Independence. This is a stark reproach of The New York Times 1619 Project that promotes the idea that the United States was founded in 1619 when the first enslaved people were brought to the Virginia Colonies. This sounds a lot like a revocation of anti-slavery teachings and a promotion of dominating Western colonization– an ideology already enacted by book bannings and changes to history textbooks made across many Republican-dominated U.S. states. 

What does the DOE do, exactly? One crucial intervention it currently provides is federal funding to students. In 2024, the department requested $18.1 billion for special education and students with disabilities. Individual states use that money for hiring special education teachers, identifying young children who may have a disability and providing adequate services, and allocating funds to low-income families or children of color who may not have access to public school. Without that federal relief, 7.5 million children will go financially unaided and will likely not have access to education.

The plan even finds its way into higher education, as there is now more uncertainty over student loans than ever before. Currently, the department provides up to $57,500 in dependent student loans to eligible recipients, $23,000 of which comes from direct subsidized loans. It also gives $138,500 for graduate programs, $65,500 of which comes in direct subsidized loans. Foneeding need of loan relief after college, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program endows $175 billion for more than 4.8 million Americans. These programs are critical to ensuring that all students, regardless of ability or financial status, receive equal opportunity to engage in education. Conservatives will argue that the $238 billion designated to the Department of Education is another example of bureaucratic bloat. I say it is absolutely necessary to ensure the future of this country.

Dismantling the DOE will also have ideological consequences on students, both in secondary and higher education. Trump has openly conflated the teachings of critical race theory with “leftwing propaganda” and demonized gender ideology in schools. Once in office, he plans on rapidly implementing these ideas in schools. For young kids struggling to understand who they are or what their skin color means, their chances of later feeling accepted in their college community decrease substantially. This will actively work against what Trump is trying to achieve by eliminating the department. America’s culture, economy, and job market are necessitated by accepting diverse intellects and perspectives, regardless of background. If Trump’s America can’t promote that, then it is contradictory to say that it can provide for the diverse group of people in the middle and lower classes–Trump’s biggest supporters.

Without accepting diversity in the early stages of education, students will begin college with an intellectual discourse that is not driven by understanding but fueled by echo chambers and political differences. Liberal arts education will cease to exist, Gender Studies majors will be out of luck, and universities won’t be able to provide Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) as a resource to students. After college, the job market will be limited, as jobs requiring a college degree also require some level of interdisciplinary thought. But if those jobs are filled with like-minded people– especially non-diverse groups of people– fields will never grow, and they will not contribute to the market in the same way that a job with diversity of opinion would. Schools without an eclectic array of interests and cultures will further entrench America within its own patriotism and ignorance.

Here’s what the numbers tell us: The surge in republican votes this cycle was led by young voters, especially college-educated ones. CNN exit polls across key swing states showed Kamala Harris winning many college-educated voters. Among them, white women voted blue 57% and non-white people voted for a combined 64%. Non-college-educated white women polled heavily red, as did non-college-educated white men. After that, the margins are much thinner. Fifty percent of white college-educated men voted for Trump, while only 47% voted for Harris. Of those men, 49% of them aged 18-29 voted red. This is somewhat surprising given the Democrat’s record for successfully polling college-educated voters, especially those still in college.

What is most ironic about these young votes is how much they will impact the very collegiate institutions they are a part of. These policies, along with their impending effect on current students, will redirect the course of college life for future generations. They will not only cut billions of dollars for students in need, but they will also mark the beginning of the plight of marginalized groups who will now struggle even more to get an equal education. However, the numbers show that Trump is what more and more students want. Along the campaign trail, he remarked, “We are going to close the Department of Education in Washington, D.C. and send it back to the States…” Comments like these signify that Republicans have seldom changed their tune on the matter, as the far right has been trying to upend this system for decades. College students seem to be following suit.

If Trump really wants to eliminate the Department of Education, he must consider those implications first. Cutting funding may keep low-income students, students with disabilities, and students of color from accessing college. A less diverse student body means less intellectual difference and, thus, a job market feeder for narrow-minded individuals. This could have a massive effect on the types of people employed and the quality of jobs created in the United States. It may even have a larger trickle-down effect on how well-informed everyone is. After all that, Trump’s win over the college-educated may not be as impressive as it first seemed.

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