And so the baseball season has begun. There will be dark horses and crashing stars. There will be languid summer games, and intense chilly October nights. There will be joy, and there will be disappointment. And there will be predictions.
So here are my predictions for the coming season. Based off of the failure of my haughty assurance that Kentucky would win the NCAA tournament (they did not even make the championship game), who knows if this version will be more accurate. But predictions are hardly ever true; they only need to be made.
Biggest surprise:
Cleveland Indians
Coming off of two decent years, the Indians are ready to make a move. Their division has no powerhouse—the Tigers are on the downswing, Kansas City will have to battle pressure from last year’s World Series run. Led by manager Terry Francona, who has two World Series wins on his resume, Cleveland fits the role of a scrappy ragtag team that can win games. They will not dazzle anyone, but they will win games. Outfielder Michael Brantley is a classic five-tool threat, leading the team with 200 hits last year, and perennially posting 20 home runs. Cleveland even added some boost to its lineup with Brandon Moss, who was the center of power in the Oakland A’s offense over the past three seasons. And few remember that the Indians’ No. 1 starter Corey Kluber won the Cy Young Award last season. The ingredients are there, and they have been simmering for a few years now. The Indians will make a deep run into the postseason and will finally bring some joy to Cleveland.
Biggest disappointment:
Washington Nationals
Yes, Washington might have the best rotation in baseball history. On paper. When was the last time the best team on paper, the team with the scariest roster and the greatest names in the game, lived up to the hype? I can’t remember one. The list of mega-teams that failed drags on through the Angels of recent years, the 2012 Marlins, the 2011 Red Sox and the Yankees of the early 2000’s. All of these teams tried to win by stockpiling the best players in the game and it never worked. Washington is trying to do that this season, adding Max Scherzer to its already bloated starting rotation. Scherzer was great in 2013 when he won the Cy Young Award, but he is not near the best pitcher in baseball as the Nationals’ diehards and bandwagoners will have us believe. Yes, the roster has some great names. Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasbourg, and Scherzer will get fans to salivate, but those oh-so-coveted stars have never won anything. Washington is a hyped-up bunch of underachievers, and all signs point to a failure of a season. Many have deemed this season as a coronation ceremony for the Nationals, but they will not even make the playoffs.
Player to watch:
Jose Abreu
Major League Baseball is anticipating a wave of Cuban stars with the opening of relations between the United States and the island nation. But it’s hard to believe Cuba can give the league any star better than Jose Abreu. Last season’s American League Rookie of the Year, Abreu posted prolific power numbers with the White Sox. He thundered onto the baseball scene with 10 home runs in April (a rookie record) and 31 RBI (also a rookie record). His numbers slowed a bit towards the end of last year, which is understandable since he had hit 29 home runs and driven in 73 runs at the All-Star break, numbers that are great for a full season let alone half. So expect great things out of Abreu on a reloaded White Sox team. We all have thought that 50-home run seasons are extinct, but Abreu will hit 50 this season. He is bringing raw power back to the game and has quickly become the scariest hitter in baseball.
Team to watch:
Chicago Cubs
Is this the year? The Cubs have not won a World Series since 1908, and have not been relevant in nearly a decade. This year has a different feel about it. Making Jon Lester their No. 1 starter with a megacontract and bringing former Rays’ manager Joe Madden into the dugout, Chicago is more primed for a World Series win than it has ever been. Even their homegrown talent Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant look like stars. Yet it is hard to believe that this is the year. In baseball ,teams rarely turn around on a dime from season to season, and after winning only 73 games last year, the Cubs have work to do. Lester is a great pitcher, and even better in the postseason, but it has yet to be seen if he can singlehandedly carry a team on his back. And having young guns is great and it attracts fans, but they also need time to develop and become winning players, not just players who put up good numbers. So have patience Cubs fans, this may not be your year. But no matter what your Cubs do this year it will be worth following, simply to see what happens.
World Series winner:
Baltimore Orioles
Why not Baltimore? The Orioles have been near the top of the game for years now, and they are made up of players ready to win. Manny Machado is the best third baseman in baseball. The team’s outfield is as sure as any. From top to bottom their pitching staff is solid, and they have one of the best bullpens around. Yet what makes Baltimore most appealing is really a process of elimination. The rest of the American League is not much better—Seattle seems to be a favorite, but the Mariners are unproven and incredibly limited in postseason experience. The Red Sox are riddled with question marks. Cleveland will be good, but not good enough to outhit Baltimore in a playoff series.
When they do reach the World Series, the Orioles will not face a murderer’s row from the National League either. There are solid teams but none stick out. St. Louis could make the World Series. So could Pittsburgh. Even the Mets (yes, the Mets) could make a run. But this is Baltimore’s year. Whoever the team faces in the World Series will not be as complete or as powerful as the Orioles. So I’m picking Baltimore. Why not?
That tends to be the very nature of making predictions—there are educated guesses and there are guesses that simply have good feelings about them, so we try to combine the two into one clean outcome whittled down from a jumble of names. So take my predictions as you will. They may very well be wrong, but where is the fun if I don’t make them? •
