Earlier this month, the President of Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou (formally known as the Republic of China) met with General Secretary Xi Jinping, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, which has controlled mainland China since the 1949 Chinese Civil War. That conflict, which saw the ROC Government exiled to Taiwan and a small number of surrounding islands, was never formally resolved, and so the two governments have co-existed since then in any uneasy and unofficial truce. The meeting, which took place in the island nation of Singapore, was the first meeting of its kind since 1949, and has been widely hailed as a step forward in relations between the two nations. In reality, however, it was nothing more than a political ploy by the two leaders to increase their own standing and image.
President Ma’s party, the pro-reunification Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) is trailing far behind in polls for the next presidential election, with a recent poll having their prospective candidate, Eric Chu, expected to earn only 20% of the vote, behind the front-running pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, whose candidate, Tsai Ing-Wen, is now expected to earn 46.2% of the vote according to a poll by Taiwan Indicators Survey Institute.
President Ma has consistently claimed to have stabilized and improved relations between mainland China and Taiwan, but he has been widely panned in Taiwan for failing to take a hard line regarding human rights abuses and lack of democratic development on the Chinese mainland. President Ma himself lags at an approval rating of only around 9%, which can be attributed largely to his unpopular domestic policies and increasing skepticism by the Taiwanese people regarding his policies towards mainland China. A proposed trade pact with the mainland last year sparked massive protests by opposition groups last March and April, during which parliament was occupied in a series of student-led protests.
Furthermore, this June, mainland Chinese TV broadcast a staged assault by the communist controlled People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on a building modeled after Taiwan’s presidential palace. Mainland China has claimed the territory of Taiwan and its inhabitants for itself, despite that fact that the communist government has never controlled any amount of Taiwan’s territory for any amount of time. Taiwan’s military is significantly smaller that China’s and is therefore dependent on international support to defend itself. Many Taiwanese fear the videos show that the PLA will launch a strike to destroy the government of the Republic of China before the international community could respond. General Secretary Xi denied these rumors during the meeting, but the facts speak differently. Over 1,200 missiles are pointed at Taiwan, and many exercises and equipment purchases by the PLA are geared towards amphibious landings and urban combat-both of which would be advantageous in any future Taiwan conflict. Furthermore, Beijing has publicly stated and even passed a law saying that any formal declaration of independence by Taiwan would be met with swift military action.
These actions show that Beijing still believes it has the right to use force against Taiwan to secure its geopolitical goals. Ultimately, it is the people of Taiwan who should be the ultimate masters of their destiny. The future of Taiwan and its relations with mainland China should be decided democratically by Taiwan’s 23 million people. Under no circumstances should mainland China be allowed to interfere militarily or economically with the democratic wishes of the Taiwanese people. Democracy has taken many years to develop in Taiwan after the military rule of the Kuomintang from 1949-1987, and respect for the rights of religious, sexual and other minorities have developed alongside it.
However, human rights in China have not improved in step, and many fear that a takeover of Taiwan would lead to an increase in rights abuses on that island. Hong Kong, which was promised universal suffrage before its turnover to mainland China in 1994, recently had a series of protests after the actual terms of universal suffrage were found to be contingent on the pre-approval of candidates by the Communist Party in Beijing. Mainland China has promised a state of government to Taiwan similar to that of Hong Kong in return for what it terms “re-unification,” but the people of Taiwan are simply not interested. A recent survey by Taiwan’s Chengchi University found only 9.1% of respondents supported joining mainland China, while 21.2% supported immediate independence, despite the fact that mainland China has vowed to attack if this were ever to come to pass. The vast majority support the status quo, under which the two governments operate independently of each other and agree to disagree about which government is legitimate. Under such a system, Taiwan’s democracy can continue to survive and peace can be maintained in the Taiwan strait.
To support the people of Taiwan in their struggle for democracy and self determination, the United States legislature and executive must continue to abide by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which commits the government of the United States to supporting the right of the people of Taiwan to self determination through sales of defensive weapons and military preparedness in East Asia. Additionally, the executive should abide by the six assurances of 1982, which commit the United States to not pressuring Taiwan into negotiating with mainland China. Taiwan’s people will choose a new leader next year, and it will be up to them, and only them, to choose a leader that can navigate the diplomatic minefield that is East Asia and, hopefully, work to create a free a prosperous society that serve as an example to many people around the world.
