Image courtesy of Gerd Altmann/Pixabay.
Good news! The hit British political drama series Brexit has recently been renewed for another season. This came off the back of a successful third season that saw the UK unable to decide if or how to leave the European Union (EU) nearly 3 and a half years after the initial referendum. Forget Sherlock, Derry Girls, or even the first seven seasons of Game of Thrones, this is where the real drama is!
So before delving into what’s to be expected in the upcoming season, let’s have a quick recap of what happened last season. One of the biggest outcomes was that despite Brexit’s second extension of an additional five months, the House of Commons has been unable to get any proposed deal backed by a majority of Members of Parliament (MPs). Moreover, there was a change in Prime Minister (PM) with Boris Johnson replacing Theresa May after her resignation in July. This appointment came after a vote where Conservative Party members voted for their new Party Leader who would then fill May’s vacant position. However, this vote came with some controversy, as some members of the British public felt angered, because only 0.13% of the population was able to vote for the nation’s new PM. Another key development over the last couple of months was that Johnson as Prime Minister was unable to suspend Parliament in September after the government’s summer break in an attempt to push through a No-Deal Brexit.
Despite intentions to bring Brexit to fruition “do or die,” Johnson was unable to get his new deal through Parliament as he fell to the same fate as May’s deal back in March. Essentially, his deal, much like May’s, was unable to give assurances to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a small and traditionalist Northern Irish party that props up the Conservative’s minority government, that Northern Ireland would not be treated differently than the rest of the UK through the incorporation of a backstop on the North of Ireland. Moreover, many opponents to Johnson’s deal claimed that his deal was worse than the one proposed by May nearly a year ago. A recent study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that the economic impacts of Johnson’s deal would leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU. This even saw attempts from MPs to bring May’s deal back, but this was not possible due to Parliamentary procedures. All of this meant that Johnson had to lick his wounds and write a letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, asking for a third extension until January 31st. However, controversially, Johnson decided to send the letter without his signature attached.
These events have lead to some key changes going into the new season. Firstly, a fan favourite character ‘Mr. Speaker,’ John Bercow, will not be reprising his role, as he stepped down from his post on October 31st. His charismatic persona and passionate cries of “Orrrrder” will be sorely missed by many viewers. However, most importantly, there is going to be a general election on December 12th, which will reshuffle the character roster midseason, after the Labour Party supported the motion by Johnson once a No-Deal Brexit was taken off the table. This will be the UK’s third general election in just over four and a half years, which is typically unheard of as election cycles are supposed to come around every five years.
Opinion polls in July highlight that the Conservatives are on track to maintain their position as the largest party in Parliament, but that they will not earn enough seats to have a majority government. Therefore, the fate of the Commons may fall on the Liberal Democrats, the third-largest party, and whether they decide to form a coalition with Labour and minority parties or the Conservatives. However, this is only one hypothesis and as we all know opinion polls have not been too successful at gauging public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic recently.
Therefore, it is evident that some key questions are still left unanswered going into the next season. What will happen to the Irish border? Will Johnson still be Prime Minister? Will the Conservatives regain their majority? Can Labour mount a revival like they did in 2017? Will this extension provide enough time for Parliament to come to a consensus? Will Johnson be found “dead in a ditch” now that he couldn’t make good on his promise? And will the bloody thing happen or not? Some of these questions will definitely be touched upon when Johnson and the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, come head to head for a televised debate on November 19th. So I encourage you to put your feet up and enjoy the fight! You never know, it could be British politic’s answer to Muhammad Ali and George Foreman’s Rumble in the Jungle. Who knows?
Regardless, if anything is clear it’s only going to get more interesting from here (unlike the last season of Game of Thrones) as politicians get their fists out and enter the election ring. •
