In Layman’s Terms: Russia & Ukraine A Simplification by a Simpleton

Image courtesy of Unsplash.

Have no idea what the hell is going on with a major event? Me neither! So let’s simplify things. 

On Thursday, Feb. 3, the Conn government department had a Zoom event where Professor Eric Fleury, Professor Petko Ivanov, Professor David Patton and Olha Vasyliv ‘23, broke down and answered questions about the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Russia that has been dominating the news. In the simplest of terms, here’s what’s going on:

Brief History & Context:

As Professor Petko asserted, the crisis in Ukraine is seen by the Kremlin as a direct response to the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the fall of the USSR in 1991, over 90% of Ukraine voted to formally declare independence. As Russia has recovered and attempted to reestablish itself as a major power like it once was, relations between Russia and Ukraine have been tumultuous.

In the 30+ years of Ukraine’s independence it has been searching for a unified national identity, going back and forth between governments, some of which leaning more towards an increased alliance with the West, and some vying to restrengthen ties with Russia. All the while, Ukraine has been dealing with its own internal issues of corruption, economic struggles and ethnic tension. 

In the past fifteen years there have been multiple occasions on which it looked as though Ukraine or former USSR countries would strengthen their ties to the west by joining organizations like NATO or the EU only for Russia to interfere. In 2008 when Georgia was rumored to join NATO, Russia invaded. In 2014 when Ukraine sought to be a member of the EU, Russia prompted a revolutionary uprising in Kiev, drove the Ukrainian president into exile and later waged a hybrid war. To this day Russia stokes the flames of ethnic tension in Eastern Ukraine as well as arming Ukrainian separatists. 

As of now, Ukraine is seeking to affiliate with the West, possibly by joining NATO. In response, Russian president Vladimir Putin, who refuses to even acknowledge that Ukraine is a real country, has lined the Ukrainian border with over 100,000 Russian troops. Things look tense to say the least.

In Layman’s Terms: Russia is a jealous and overly controlling former “guardian”to Ukraine, but refuses to acknowledge Ukraine’s independence. Imagine if despite what the court said, Britney Spears’ dad still acted like the conservatorship never ended. Any time Ukraine looks to go play with new friends or join a new club with Russia’s adversaries, Russia threatens them because it’s scared.

What’s the Ukrainian Point of View?:
Perhaps most important in this situation is what the citizens of Ukraine think and feel. Conn’s own Olha Vasyliv and her family are from Kiev, and when asked for her perspective, she said “this is yet another crisis for me.” Vasyliv commented on how this national dynamic has been a constant in her upbringing, and that she’s “not that reactant” anymore. Professor Ivanov echoed this, describing how the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has led to a “sense of normalcy in daily life” for most Ukrainians. Vasyliv emphasized that while the Western media continuously refers to this situation as a conflict, this is still very much a real war.

Vasyliv concluded by nonchalantly voicing that while she appreciates the U.S and other countries supporting Ukraine at this time, that this is just “another strategy to scare us.”

In Layman’s Terms: While not quite a “what else you got?”, there certainly seems to be a sense of “what else is new?” to Vasyliv and many other Ukrainians. The people within this war and with what appears to be the most at stake, are maybe the least alarmed.

What Does Russia Want?:

Russia is citing Ukraine’s interest in NATO and the potential increase in Western power and influence as a threat to their national security, and they want these concerns to be taken seriously. Their most prominent demands include:

• NATO will not expand into the former Soviet Union (including Ukraine)
• NATO will cease the expansion of offensive weaponry and personnel into the former Soviet Union
• There will be a withdrawal of all Western military and NATO personnel that have been instituted in the former Soviet Union since 1997

These demands being met is extremely unlikely. As to why Russia is demanding these things (and so aggressively), Professor Fleury claims the biggest threat to Putin is that “Ukraine is Ukraine.” The panel illustrated how if Ukraine begins to flourish as a truly independent country with the help of the West, the citizens under Putin’s long standing and oppressive regime could begin to look inwardly at their own nation and think they could have things better.

Ukraine beginning to prosper could have what Professor Patton calls “a magnetic effect” on neighboring countries, including Russia itself. Should Ukraine join NATO, Russia would have a much more difficult time imposing their will on them like other adjacent states, as attacking a NATO country is something entirely different. 

In Layman’s Terms: Russia is like Jack Sparrow, trapped on a vessel that no longer belongs to him, yelling “stop blowing holes in my ship!” at the West. They want all NATO weapons, personnel and influence to leave anywhere that used to be in the USSR. They don’t want to see Ukraine succeed because the countries under their direct influence (including themselves) may see that they’d be better off otherwise.

How Does This Involve the U.S?:

Professor Fleury immediately rejected two popular narratives about how the U.S plays into this situation. Firstly, he rejected the idea that this situation has everything to do with the U.S. This is not a test of American (or President Biden’s) resolve or a way for Putin to exploit American weakness. This is about Ukraine and Russia. However, he also rejected the idea that this has nothing to do with the U.S or that Putin has reasonable demands and has to be taken at his word that Russia’s security is actually being threatened.

In the same vein that this is not a Machiavellian ploy to exploit the U.S, this equally is not a plot to humiliate Russia. Putin’s assertion that Ukraine is a pawn, or the stage on which Russia and the grander powers of the West will face off seems thin.

While Russia’s entire reaction comes across as sort of an abrasive cry for attention or desperate reminder that they’re still powerful enough to rival the U.S and the rest of the West, it’s also not as if the U.S can just ignore them like a toddler kicking you in the shins on a work call. Russia’s equivalent of throwing a tantrum is threatening the general security and sovereignty of entire nations with attack and invasion, so it’s going to take more than just the silent treatment here. 

The U.S, and everyone else, thinks Russia invading Ukraine would be bad, so they’re heavily invested in preventing that. Tangentially however, the U.S is also looking to finally sort Russia away into one box or another: are they really a dangerous power, or just a sullen, former threat? If the U.S is looking to put most of their overseas political attention towards China and Asia in the future, it’s annoying that Russia keeps resurfacing as a nuisance. 

In Layman’s Terms: The U.S. doesn’t want Russia to invade Ukraine. That would likely lead to war and danger beyond just that region. However, just because Russia’s reaction looks like a cry for attention doesn’t mean their threats are fake or they can be easily ignored. The U.S. wants to settle this for their own convenience as well as everyone else’s. 

Final Thoughts / Invasion?:

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is whether Russia will actually invade or not, so it needs to be asked whether an invasion would actually advance their goals, or if it would just be a vindictive reaction to being dismissed. As for their goals, anything short of a full blown occupation would mean facing off with a resisting Ukraine armed with missiles and other forms of Western support, so it’s hard to see how that would help get rid of NATO. 

Both Professors Fleury & Patton agreed that there must be a balance struck from NATO, as they want to issue support to Ukraine without doing so much that it actually validates Putin’s security concerns. Professor Fleury quoted Don Corleone, saying that Putin has to see enough support from the West to know that “if a bolt of lightning” should strike the wrong side of the line, Russia would be in trouble. Professor Patton succinctly said Western reinforcement is intended to give “reassurance and deterrence.”

In the end, a lot of this seems to boil down to Putin. While he’s not the James Bondian, mastermind villain that he’s often posed as, he’s still an authoritarian dictator with a violent history. If he elects to invade for one megalomaniacal reason or another, it very well may go forward.

While this take may end up aging like radioactive milk, realistically the signs point towards an invasion not happening, although sadly that does not mean this situation will have a tidy or timely resolution. Tense negotiations will likely continue for some time.

In Layman’s Terms: Signs point against invasion. Still, this situation should be taken seriously and will probably take some time to conclude.