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The San Francisco 49ers are a curious case this season. Coming into the year they possessed one of the best collections of high-end talent in the entire league, and particularly in the NFC, which projects to be quite weak this season. This includes blue chip superstars such as tight end George Kittle, jack-of-all-trades weapon Deebo Samuel, edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, interior defensive lineman Arik Armstead, and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. They also have a class of young emerging stars such as wideout Brandon Aiyuk and defensive backs Charvarious Ward and Talanoa Hufanga.
For all of the talent on the Niners’ roster this season, they had a question mark at the game’s most important position. 2021 number three overall draft pick Trey Lance was given the reins at quarterback this season after sitting behind veteran Jimmy Garoppolo last season(which culminated with a close loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams). The plan had always been to trade Garoppolo in the off-season, or to release him in order to save some salary cap space. However an off-season shoulder surgery ended up tanking Garoppolo’s trade value, and the team and the quarterback agreed to a restructured contract to make Garoppolo the league’s highest-paid backup quarterback before he hits free agency next off-season.
The move to keep Garoppolo drew a lot of criticism from both fans and media around the Bay Area. There was a sense that Garoppolo’s presence would make it harder for the young and raw Lance to take control of the team. His presence also didn’t help put to bed the questions about Lance’s readiness, as many viewed him as a liability due to his inexperience. Despite his sky-high potential, many viewed Lance as a potential weakness for a team that is currently right in the middle of a wide-open Super Bowl window.
Now, heading into week 4, the Niners are 1-2 after an ugly loss to the Denver Broncos in which Garoppolo struggled mightily. Despite his struggles last week, keeping Garoppolo around is looking like a lucky masterstroke by general manager John Lynch. After Lance struggled to play in torrential rain in a shocking loss to the Chicago Bears to open the season, he broke his ankle on a running play late in the first quarter of the Niners’ week two 27-7 win against the divisional rival Seattle Seahawks. 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan caught a lot of criticism for putting his young quarterback in harm’s way, with how much he was running him. Garoppolo stepped in for Lance, looking solid, completing 13 of 21 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown to backup tight end Ross Dwelley in three quarters of play. He also rushed for a touchdown.
Regardless of who is at fault for Lance’s devastating injury, the Niners are right back
where they were for the past several seasons, with Garoppolo at the helm of an ultra-talented
roster. Jimmy G has been one of the league’s most polarizing quarterbacks throughout his run
as the Niners’ starter. The team is 31-14 with him as a starter, far better than they have been
with any other quarterback in the six seasons they have been coached by Shanahan. The last
two seasons in which Garoppolo has started the majority of the 49ers games they have reached
the Super Bowl (2019) and the NFC Title Game (2021). Despite the team’s success with him at
quarterback, Garoppolo is clearly a physically limited thrower. He struggles to consistently throw
deep, isn’t particularly mobile, and is prone to several head-scratching decisions per game,
throws which many Niners fans have come to term the “Jimmy Oh No” throws. And no 49ers fan
has will ever forget his infamous overthrow of Emmanuel Sanders with Super Bowl LIV on the
line back in February of 2020.
So, with Garoppolo now at the helm, how does this change the 49er’s prospects this season? The answer is probably not that much, at least in terms of baseline expectations. While Garoppolo’s ceiling is certainly lower than Lance’s sky-high potential, his floor is undeniably higher. He’s an experienced NFL starter, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. He’s beloved by his 49er teammates and knows Shanahan’s offensive system well. Three seasons ago the Niners were a play or two away from winning a title with him at the helm, and last season they were a play or two away from getting back to the big game with him. Garoppolo is a solid game manager, and given the wealth of talent around him, that is likely all that he will be asked to do; he won’t be asked to win many games for San Francisco by himself, but rather he will be asked to just not lose them for them. This season’s Niners’ roster is perhaps the most talented team he and Shanahan have had to work with, and in a weakened NFC, they should cruise into the playoffs and be among the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII this coming February in Arizona.
Where the projections for the Niners really change is in the long term. Garoppolo is in the last year of his contract, and the assumption remains that the team will move on from him after this season in favor of Lance, who they invested significant draft capital in to acquire. But at this point, Lance will not have played in more than two competitive football games in each of the past three seasons (he only played in one game in his final season at North Dakota State in 2020 due to covid, started two games last season for which Garoppolo was injured, and played the first 1.3 games this season before getting hurt.) The same questions about whether or not he will be ready to step into a Super Bowl contender roster that doesn’t have much of a margin for error or time to develop a young player will remain.
What remains the case, is that San Francisco will likely once again contend for the Super Bowl this season. They may even win it, with Jimmy Garoppolo riding off in one final blaze of glory. What is not for sure though is where the team will go at the game’s most important position after this season.
