Courtesy of René DeAnda
Since the 2020 presidential election, the political state of America has not changed much. This is a result of the fact that Republicans and Democrats will most likely be reusing the same candidates from the previous election, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Biden is seen by the Democrats as a seasoned politician who knows the game well enough to be an effective yet compassionate president. Trump, meanwhile, is seen as the voice of the forgotten among many Republicans and, as such, is seen by them as the candidate who will most likely acknowledge the complaints of social and economic change coming from a large portion of the American public. Two things are for certain though: 2024 will be a rematch of 2020, and many Americans seem to be tired of these two candidates.
On the Republican side, despite all of his controversy, Donald Trump will almost certainly be the candidate in the 2024 Election. This is not only because of his charisma, but also his opponents lack of it. For the sake of argument, let’s look at Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis who have both either dropped out of the race or fallen so far behind in the polls that they can be deemed irrelevant. DeSantis in particular tried to “out-Trump” Trump, a feat which nobody has even come close to achieving.The problem with them is that they fail to present themselves as true representatives of the Republican base’s grievances of a changing America, because they preach generic conservative talking points such as immigration crackdowns, promotion of fossil fuels, tariffs, tax breaks and the like without anything that makes them interesting. Trump does the same thing but with far more charisma, and in a way that his base is drawn to. This is why he will almost certainly be victorious in the primaries. At the end of the day, politics is more about being popular, not being articulate and effective.
Meanwhile, Biden will emerge as the Democratic pick because he is an incumbent President. Incumbents almost always are given a red carpet to their party’s nomination. It is also worth noting that many of the other Democratic candidates are perceived to be too radical for the mainstream American public to support. Candidates such as Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips are seen as too radical, with Williamson being a hardcore proponent of clean energy and Phillips being a proponent for free education and healthcare, all things that some Americans are afraid will damage their nation if they ever come into play. Much of the American public has been taught to fear certain far left wing ideas on the basis that they are entirely contrary to American values.
Biden’s platform is more along the lines of “defending democracy,” promoting social services to an extent, gun regulation, the right to an abortion and similar moderate policies. Despite his cakewalk to the Democratic nomination, Biden is still struggling in terms of popularity and morale. This is something that he has always struggled with to various degrees, but now so more than before. This is because of his struggles with the overall economy, housing issues, with a significant percentage of the populace unable to afford a two-story home, the U.S.-Mexico border, with thousands of migrants being mishandled by the U.S. Border patrol, his perceived mental and physical decline. There is also a segment of the Democratic voting bloc that is frustrated with his handling of the Israel/Hamas war. It’s also important to note that the passionate hatred for Trump, while undeniably still there, is not as strong as it may have been four years ago. That is, at least for now, while he is outside of the presidential office. So, despite his current perceived weakness, Biden will most likely be the Democratic nominee.
With Trump and Biden essentially being shoo-ins for the nominations of their respective parties once again, will anything really change during this election? It’s possible that the outcome will differ this time around due to Trump’s charisma, Biden’s waning popularity, and hate for Trump being less passionate since last election. However, Trump lost most key swing states in 2020, and it’s not clear whether he’s made enough ground back in said states in order to win the election. It’s also important to note that since the overturning of Roe v. Wade – which Trump has bragged about to no end over the past few months – Republicans have lost almost every significant close election. While there may be smaller roadblocks for both sides, those two are most certainly some of the more impactful. The most impactful roadblock, however, is the notion that the vast majority of the American populace seems to be sick and tired of old white men running the country. Many Americans appear to believe they are out of touch with the issues facing everyday Americans, and as a result, are unable to enact policy that will genuinely benefit the American public.
As a possible result of this frustration with the current establishment, far fewer people may vote this time around compared to the previous election, creating what could be just what the Republicans need to get themselves back into power for the next four years. Regardless of all that about political anxiety, popularity and voter turnout, only time will tell who will be on top of the federal government for the next four years, and a large portion of the American public will be frustrated regardless of the outcome.
